The MOVE Index is often described as the bond market’s VIX. It measures expected volatility in Treasury yields across maturities, effectively capturing how uncertain traders are about the path of policy and inflation. When MOVE rises, the bond market is gripped by doubt: investors demand higher yields to compensate for risk, and long-duration bonds fall in price. When MOVE falls, the message is different — uncertainty is fading, liquidity is improving, and the market is regaining conviction that policy is predictable again.
Over time, MOVE and TLT have shown a consistently negative correlation. Rising volatility usually accompanies higher yields and falling bond prices; falling volatility supports a recovery in prices. The current setup fits the latter pattern. As the MOVE Index has trended lower throughout 2024 and 2025, TLT has stopped making new lows and begun carving out a pattern of higher troughs. The timing is not accidental. Bond markets typically stabilize long before macroeconomic data confirm a turn. Once volatility compresses, the environment for long-duration holdings improves — a lead indicator for calmer monetary conditions ahead.
